Saving Virtual Reality

I'm part of this weird generation of people.

Being born in the early 2000s, we didn't necessarily have smartphones when we were five, but we also started owning them way before adulthood. I think we're technically labeled “Gen Z”, I don't know. 

It's just interesting that we never grew up attached to a singular technology; our parents had computers, their parents had television, and newborns today practically come with smartphones. Whereas when I remember growing up, I can just as easily recall early mornings playing Club Penguin in the “computer room” and watching SpongeBob on cable, as much as the App Store and Netflix. I guess we're just kind of a blend; witnessing the rise of the internet and the origins of social media.

And even as game-changing as these technologies are and continue to be, they were just missing something: the “wow feeling”. When I first used Instagram, I didn't react like my dad when he saw the first pixel light up in Pong or my grandpa when he initially watched a movie with sound. There was never this huge leap in a single device we had; our generation just kind of ping-ponged around a few technologies until we ended up with a mobile version of all of them.

That was until a few years ago. During my Freshman year of high school, I would stumble upon my first technology boom: virtual reality. The first piece of tech to truly and sincerely astonish me; unlike smartphones and smartwatches which augment our lives, VR did something that no technology replicates: the ability to imitate life. 

The potential in this type of device lit a fire in me: I began to read books on the history of this “magic” machinery, becoming fascinated by how it only takes two lenses and a screen to trick any brain into believing it is in a new place. I would come home from school every day and consume YouTubers and bloggers as obsessed as me talking about developments in the industry. I would eat, sleep, and breathe this device. It was unreal.

By sophomore year, I had worked my ass off at an almost minimum-wage job (no other than Chick-fil-A) to buy my first computer and VR system. Looking back, this would go on to shape a lot of what I did in high school; some of my strongest memories of friends and social experiences were from seeing them in VR. 

This was especially useful during the pandemic: watching movies together in a packed virtual movie theater every other night, exploring worlds (outer space and underwater) through the metaverse of VR Chat, and even shooting each other’s brains off while trying to plant a bomb at 3 am in Pavlov.

Aside from gaming, we also became fascinated with the psychological applications; VR helping people conquer their fears by simulating scenarios or lending doctors to experience the perspectives of different mental disorders. Even the philosophy of having virtual relationships vs real ones were interesting topics that drove my love for virtual reality.

It was definitely an abnormal phase of my life, one that I'm also proud of.

And so for as many praises I can string together for this tech, it's sad to say I can count on one hand the number of times I've turned on a headset this year. It's strange; because VR sales in content and headsets are increasing, but it's hard to argue retention rates are following a similar pattern.

“Survey data – conducted in 17 markets in 2021, and 18 markets in 2022 – shows that playing video games in VR saw the most decline in consumer interest in 2022 from 37% to 30% globally.” -Janice Fernandes, YouGov

People just aren’t actively engaging with the platform. And I think most everyone can attest to at least knowing someone who purchased a Quest 2 a few years back, had fun with it for a couple weeks, and now it's another decoration on their shelf. 

“VR’s growth relative to the overall PC gaming market has continued to stagnate since the release of Half-Life: Alyx over two years ago.” - David Heaney, Upload VR

A key founder in modern-day VR, Palmer Luckey, exclaimed similar frustrations with the industry. In one of his blog posts a few years back he stated “Free isn't cheap enough”; saying that you could almost gift people this hardware and they would probably thank you and appreciate it, but without compelling software, it's hard to say the headset won’t be sitting in their closet a few weeks later collecting dust.

That is by far the truest statement I have read describing the industry.

“Hardware sales get a lot of attention and speculation from analysts and consumers alike, but the real name of the game revolves around the number of people logging in and spending money each week, the life force that makes everything actually go.” -Palmer Luckey

So how can we fix this? How can we make VR compelling enough that it can truly go mainstream and have millions of active users like, say, the iPhone?

Here is my gameplan:

After closely being a part of the VR community over the last couple of years, I’ve witnessed companies rise out of nowhere and become acquired, a few others stay afloat, and many land onto the market and go under within a year. These questions on how to fix VR aren’t simple; if they were, everyone would be inside a virtual metaverse right now.

Yet despite not having one simple fix, I keep seeing some of the same few problems holding back the industry over the years. I'm no game developer or economist, just a writer who is crazy passionate about this platform and wants it to succeed.

In this essay, I'll outline three key issues plaguing virtual reality, and offer some solutions businesses can take to save it. 

Ignore price, content is king👑

A lot of the content, be it games or apps, in virtual reality feel unfinished. Much of the software is run by small independent developers or Kickstarter projects; You can’t interact much with the worlds you visit, the stories or levels are usually very short, and the general quality of the graphics is low. If these games were released on any other console or even mobile platforms they would be laughed out of the market for their low quality and scope. Many apps resemble those early iPhone and iPad games from the 2000s; except rather than costing $2.99 they're more like $29.99. While there are some AAA quality experiences made by Valve or Sony - Half-Life Alyx or Resident Evil -  they’re few and far between. 

Similar to gaming, movies and productivity applications also lack basic features leaving them feeling rough and unfinished. I mentioned in the introduction that my friend group watched a lot of content in VR together. When it works, it’s a compelling alternative to social gatherings. The thing is half the time we used it in 2020, we couldn’t connect to each other’s lobbies, or the sound from the video didn't work, or the image would look terrible. It's kind of a mess of an application; we just simply had the patience to sit through troubleshooting and eventually have a good experience. It's hard to say other people would share this patience.

So how can we improve the content problem?

If there’s one thing I’ve learned from being a tech enthusiast over the years is that people will pay insane amounts of money for any product/service if it's good; PC Gamers spend hundreds to thousands of dollars a year buying new graphics cards and CPUs to simply get a couple more pixels or frames in their game. Car enthusiasts drop thousands tweaking and upgrading minor pieces in their driving experience. Even music nerds will pay out hundreds of dollars for the highest quality headphones and speakers. 

So imagine how much people will pay if a device fundamentally changes the experience in itself.

Probably enough for manufacturers to make some profit.

Sony, Meta, and HTC's current marketing strategy is to sell their headsets (mostly) at a loss to help lower the price of entry for consumers, opening the market. But as Palmer Luckey mentioned, “free isn’t cheap enough.” Everyone in the world can own a headset, but if there’s no incentive to continually use it everyday, it’s hard to say the technology will ever grow out of its Niche.

Obviously the hardware can’t be so expensive that it’s unreachable to consumers; but what I'm saying is that maybe companies can work in reverse; that maybe businesses should take some of the revenue they are “losing” on Hardware (raise the price a couple hundred dollars) and instead put it toward producing compelling content. 

Invest millions into games; new worlds we can explore that look great, have polish, and are expansive. Give us a Zelda, Red Dead Redemption, Overwatch, or Elden Ring. A game like Beat Saber is fantastic, but doesn’t offer the same scope as say Grand Theft Auto. There's nothing in VR that has the same progression systems, world-size, or graphics as Call of Duty or Counter Strike. To succeed, VR has to advance past the low horizon, almost party games, that are plaguing the industry. 

Once there is quality software, I guarantee people will pay just about anything. Content drives adoption.

Look at any emerging technology; the iPhone launched during one of the worst recessions the world has ever seen for almost $900 in today's money. Hundreds of people still took out loans to enter the ecosystem. 

“Despite being in the middle of a pretty deep recession, according to Apple a whopping 1 million of the new 3G S iPhones were sold over the weekend.” -Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, ZDNET

So why then were people willing to spend so much even through hard times?

There's a quote from Steve Jobs around the launch of the device where he famously said, “There's an app for that”. It had software for cooking, gaming, movies, navigation, or any other type of circumstance. The audience was truly everyone: Candy Crush for grandma, Netflix for the kids, a camera for dad, Facebook for teens, a calorie tracker for mom, and an App Store for developers. Oh, and it also calls people.

The Phone had content; this attracted all sorts of consumers, regardless of price.

VR should follow a similar model. It is a niche market and to take over the world it must be quality first. What these companies currently pushing VR are doing by lowering the price and providing no content is making short term gains in the market; increasing the hardware sales, but providing no incentive for people to continually use it.

Short term gains are where we are. Long term gains are where we should be.

Make it social💬

Malcolm Gladwell writes in his 2006 publication, The Tipping Point, about what makes certain products/behaviors become trends. More specifically, he identifies a certain factor, the law of context, which says our friends and environment play a large factor in what we consume and eventually becomes viral.

Human beings are social creatures; if you take a look at the most popular video games or applications from consoles and the App Store, an overwhelming majority of them are multi-user. People buy what their friends buy and VR is no different. The problem is that an overwhelming majority of VR content and applications are solitary; there is no Fortnite or Minecraft or Instagram or Skype. Many of the games are single-player stories. If you and I were to buy a VR headset today, I can count on one hand the amount of applications we could experience together; The picking is small and what’s there isn’t very attractive either.

“‘Even on the highest settings,’ said our reviewer, “it’s too limited graphically to be a particularly engrossing virtual reality experience.”…they’re all rendered in blocky, cartoonish visuals reminiscent of a 2000s-vintage game.” -Chris Sokel-Walker, Decrypt

The few social VR apps that do exist are rough; suffering from the same problems I listed in the content section. An app like VRChat for example, the highest populated social VR application, is riddled with bugs, performance issues, and generally low quality graphics. And it's not the developers fault exactly; the whole platform is managed by a company with under 40 employees. 

In fact, knowing how small their team is almost shows how impressive it is that they've created the closest thing we have to a metaverse. 

But regardless of quality, it's clear the potential for social presence in VR is why large player bases still exist in social VR; the feeling of seeing another human avatar in 3D space, looking into your eyes and sharing a conversation moving their hands and body. One of my closest friends has an online relationship that he carries out through the worlds of VRChat. He says the presence the app offers is good enough that some of the same boundaries long distance relationships have really don’t exist in VR. Its impressive stuff.

I've visited the app many times myself, and met some interesting strangers online and many unusual ones; but the point is there is possibility for quality friendships and relationships there and many people already see it. 

“Looking down at your virtual hands and then walking over to view your personal avatar in a mirror for the first time is a transformative experience. Gone are the joysticks and keyboard commands; your face and hands are your interface in VR, and even something as simple as looking over your own virtual shoulder (yes, that's possible) pulls you deeper into the immersive experience.”-Adario Strange, Mashable

But how can we improve the social VR landscape?

Large companies such as Meta or Sony, should prioritize building quality social apps and games.

One of the few exceptions to the VR content problem is Half Life-Alyx: a fantastic video game designed by Valve a few years back. I've played it almost 3 times over, a truly stellar experience. Yet the problem here is even for the incredible graphics and AAA gameplay of Alyx, it's a single player experience. Once you finish the game there’s not much reason to come back. Imagine if Valve put all that funding towards building a Left for Dead or Team Fortress multiplayer VR title; I guarantee people would still be playing.

When you build social games and applications there is a safety net in usage. If the software is solid, people will continue to come back again and again to play everyday; look at Fortnite, a four year old game that is still very relevant due to its multiplayer and regular updates. Its deep progression and continuous content keeps people around.

“As of February 2022, Fortnite was #2 most popular games of all time on Twitch, with more than 27.7 billion all time views worldwide…an average player spends $102.42 in the game in 2020, an increase of 21% as compared to 2018 data.” -Maya Robertson, Mobile Marketing Reads

The end goal of course would be to connect the world through a sort of metaverse; a digital second earth where anyone can be anything and we can socialize, game, work, date, and create with strangers from across the world. It would truly be the next computing platform; effectively replacing the internet and possibly some real life interactions. I mean what's the point of traveling to the other side of the world to have a business meeting that can be simulated in VR? For what reason would we need to spend millions of tax dollars building new schools, when we can build a virtually infinite one? Why be limited to meeting and interacting with only the people in your immediate area versus anyone in the world? 

The internet brought the world closer, by linking it through text and video. I believe VR will connect the world a whole lot more. 

A true metaverse will be the second Pangea: uniting every content together and allowing anyone from anywhere to share the same infinite virtual space. All companies have to do is build it.

Screw immersion, get comfortable⛱

These last details are small, yet critical to the tipping point for virtual reality. They are the minor features like wireless headsets, that look clean, are comfortable, and have no friction. If VR ever wants to go mainstream, it must be as easy to get into as turning on your phone or Xbox. 

In his book, Atomic Habits, James Clear describes the brain as “proactively lazy”.

“The ultimate purpose of habits is to solve the problems of life with as little energy and effort as possible.” -James Clear, Atomic Habits

If we want people to form the habit of entering VR everyday it has to be easy. It has to be attractive. Headsets need to be lighter, wireless, and comfortable. The process of entering VR has to become as simple as putting your glasses or contacts on in the morning to catch on. If you need to turn on a sensor or rearrange your room or wrestle with wires to open VR, it's rare this habit will become a part of anyone's daily routine.

Above graphics or advanced tracking VR companies’ number one priority on the hardware side should be to create headsets that are frictionless. 

This is where my frustrations with the VR hardware innovations of the last few years lie: a majority of the investments are being funneled into the wrong areas. I look at the Valve Index controllers for example, and at first I see this game changing controller that tracks each of my individual finger movements in VR. But then I remember the Valve Index is a headset that needs to be physically chained to a computer, requires external sensors to be mounted on my wall, and weighs almost 2 pounds when it sits on my head. Despite the cool controllers, it also requires me to be very uncomfortable to enter another world. Look at the Meta Quest 2, same thing. It is wireless and standalone, which (to be fair) is a massive improvement. But, for all its advanced hand tracking and facial motion sensors, the headset requires me to set up a Facebook or Meta account and weighs like a brick on my head.

Imagine if every time you wanted to use your iPhone you had to carry around this huge battery that was tethered to it. Or presume your smartwatch weighed almost 2 pounds on your wrist while going for a run. What if windows required you to create a separate account to a social media you don’t use to sign in.

Would you still use them?

The general trend among successful technology leans towards ease of use and quick experience over advanced features. 

If the industry wants to grow, it needs to focus on these tiny details such as comfort, wireless, and being lightweight, making VR as easy to enter. Once these factors are sorted we can worry about flipping off our friends in VR or tracking every muscle on our face. 

Future innovations will come, but right now companies need to focus on the basics to create a baseline in hardware.

Closing Notes🗒

There are more questions the VR industry needs to answer; After these three, I would say the physical assertion, high price, and motion sickness factor are some other lingering issues.

And yet, I believe if we can solve the problems I listed, VR can take off. 

I love this platform, and want it to expand more than anyone in the world. These are growing pains that every emerging technology goes through, and that may be just what is going on right now. I hope it's sorted sooner rather than later.

My generation may be known for the generation growing up with iPhones and iPods, but I believe one day Virtual Reality will take over every aspect of the human condition. 

Side note: I'm not lying about those daily VR shows, I would actually watch one guy blabber on every single day about any new piece of information; I even went on his show 2 years ago. If you wanna see an awkward quarantined Juan check out this monstrosity. He was an addicted man.

Anyways, thanks again for reading!